Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 0.699073 0.804721 0.917618 1.046865 1.190355 1.344386 1.521847
2025-02-16 0.504245 0.639302 0.794581 0.984834 1.210088 1.466686 1.779407
2025-02-23 0.357557 0.500982 0.678585 0.911168 1.203898 1.556136 2.007653
2025-03-02 0.247657 0.386176 0.571571 0.831282 1.178359 1.618401 2.209628
2025-03-09 0.183989 0.319054 0.513998 0.804922 1.215547 1.760879 2.524100
2025-03-16 0.134673 0.261212 0.458614 0.772372 1.239292 1.887191 2.828917
2025-03-23 0.107326 0.231150 0.438523 0.787039 1.329884 2.111518 3.283796
2025-03-30 0.077350 0.188268 0.389672 0.749659 1.338579 2.220276 3.586302
2025-04-06 0.057868 0.159008 0.357554 0.733451 1.376500 2.373326 3.962431
2025-04-13 0.042390 0.132626 0.324743 0.710197 1.399242 2.503868 4.313308
2025-04-20 0.033503 0.117987 0.311273 0.718919 1.475088 2.721476 4.808895
2025-04-27 0.025898 0.103480 0.294722 0.718889 1.535000 2.917070 5.281629
2025-05-04 0.019540 0.089908 0.277962 0.717752 1.596408 3.125802 5.799029
2025-05-11 0.014760 0.078632 0.263743 0.719608 1.663735 3.350075 6.356912
2025-05-18 0.010254 0.065228 0.240342 0.697508 1.682746 3.492690 6.789877
2025-05-25 0.006560 0.051688 0.211953 0.658403 1.662997 3.564749 7.108476
2025-06-01 0.004693 0.044609 0.199826 0.655482 1.716354 3.772096 7.670064
2025-06-08 0.003166 0.037416 0.184661 0.641901 1.745304 3.935860 8.164402
2025-06-15 0.002485 0.034700 0.183727 0.665376 1.857154 4.263053 8.964516
2025-06-22 0.001538 0.028207 0.166382 0.640631 1.858309 4.377222 9.387599
2025-06-29 0.001003 0.023941 0.155647 0.632216 1.895454 4.563390 9.950078
2025-07-06 0.000606 0.019790 0.143213 0.615901 1.911640 4.707991 10.441763
2025-07-13 0.000424 0.017839 0.139857 0.626964 1.994835 4.992539 11.206477